四大名捕

一 |     　　作者：郑邮飞/F0284348、Z0010566/　　一德期货能源化工分析师　　要点速览版　　做多关键因素消失，甚至逐步进入过剩格局。    Pyongyang's assumptions with regard to Washington's potential role in the COVID-19 pandemic apparently stem from a bombshell report by professors Jeffrey D Sachs and Neil L Harrison, published in May 2022 by peer-reviewed multidisciplinary scientific journal, The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).,"Prof Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University had spent two years as chairman of the Lancet Commission on COVID and recently published a major paper in the prestigious PNAS journal arguing that the virus was very likely artificial, also calling for an independent inquiry into its possible American origins, but virtually all western media outlets ignored his dramatic reversal," says Ron Unz, an American technology entrepreneur, political activist, writer and the publisher of the Unz Review.,On 27 May, Sachs and Harrison released an op-ed for Project Syndicate, arguing that US authorities suppressed inquiries into the role US scientific research institutions may have played in creating the conditions of the COVID pandemic. "Yet if the coronavirus did indeed come from a lab, US culpability is almost certain," the professors insisted, calling for independent probes "not only into the outbreak in Wuhan, China, but also into the relevant US scientific research, international outreach, and technology licensing in the lead-up to the pandemic.",According to Sachs and Harrison, "the full story of the outbreak could involve America’s role in researching coronaviruses and in sharing its biotechnology with others around the world." The professors pointed out that "US scientists who work with SARS-like coronaviruses regularly create and test dangerous novel variants" to develop drugs and vaccines against them. These experiments, also known as "gain-of-function" research, have been conducted for decades prompting concerns that one day they could lead to an accidental outbreak or end up in the wrong hands, the scholars highlighted.,"In June, [Sachs] went even further in his public statements at a Spanish think-tank, describing the COVID virus as probably having an American origin," notes Unz. "In my opinion, Prof Sachs is merely stating what many senior figures in the West quietly believe or suspect but have been unwilling to mention publicly.",Situation in UkraineUS Has Helped Support 46 Biological Labs in Ukraine Over Last Two Decades, Pentagon Says9 June, 17:19 GMT,An Accidental Leak or a Warfare Tool?,America's experiments with viruses and dangerous pathogens have triggered concerns in Russia and China over the past few years. On 13 May 2020, Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov drew attention to a "dense network" of US biolabs located "along the perimeter of the Russian Federation and near Chinese borders".,Earlier this year, Beijing urged Washington to disclose the information about the activities of at least 360 biolabs in the world, presumably run by the US.,Since 2001, Russia, China, and many other countries have advocated the creation of a verification mechanism within the framework of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction to ensure biosafety across the world. Nonetheless, the US was "about the only country" which has categorically opposed this proposal for roughly 20 years, Lavrov revealed in 2020.,"Over the past 70 years, America has invested an estimated $100Bln in developing the world's largest and longest-standing biowarfare program," says Unz.,Situation in UkraineWhat's Behind Washington's Denial of Biowarfare Weapons Programme in Ukraine?12 March, 15:50 GMT,The American publisher suggested that the US could be responsible for the COVID outbreak long before Sachs and Harrison did. Furthermore, Unz does not rule out that the pathogen was used as a deliberate biowarfare tool against China and, possibly, Iran by "elements of [the US] national security establishment, though without the direct knowledge or authorization of President Donald Trump.",There are a lot of unknowns about the mysterious pandemic which is believed to have come from the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China. For instance, neither a COVID-19 "patient zero" nor a "guilty bat" have been found, which means that SARS-CoV-2 may actually have been circulating among humans some time before the late 2019 Wuhan outbreak, according to CBS News.,In April 2020, ABC News broke the story that a special medical intelligence unit within the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in the second week of November 2019 produced a classified report warning about an "out-of-control disease epidemic" in the Wuhan area of China. It urged the US to protect its forces in Asia. Although a Pentagon spokesman officially denied the existence of that November report, Israel's broadcaster Channel 12 said the US had also shared the document in question with NATO and Israeli Defense Force (IDF).,It appears suspicious, according to Unz, that the DIA rushed to dub the mysterious disease an "epidemic" at a time when just a couple of dozen individuals were infected in Wuhan.,"It therefore appears that elements of the Defense Intelligence Agency were aware of the deadly viral outbreak in Wuhan more than a month before any officials in the Chinese government itself," Unz points out. "Furthermore, the New York Times and CNN have also promoted a major new research study just published in Science that found the first Wuhan infection probably occurred on 18 November 2019. This was after the secret DIA report had already been produced, but the American media has completely ignored the implications of this striking discrepancy.",Yet another strange coincidence was Donald Trump's appointment of Robert Kadlec as the top official for dealing with biological threats in 2017, the American writer says. Since the Nineties, Kadlec had been one of America’s leading biowarfare advocates.,"From January to August 2019, Kadlec’s department ran the 'Crimson Contagion' simulation exercise, involving the hypothetical outbreak of a dangerous respiratory viral disease in China, which eventually spreads to the United States, with the participants focusing on the necessary measures to control it in this country," Unz says, adding that before that China had suffered two inexplicable viral epidemics which hit its poultry and pork industry in 2018 and 2019, respectively.,Situation in UkraineUkraine Labs: Bioweapons Can be Used as Tool in US Low-Level War Against Russia, ex-DoD Analyst Says15 April, 12:51 GMT,History of Pentagon's Bio-warfare,Although the Pentagon's alleged responsibility for the COVID outbreak has yet to be examined and backed by solid evidence, one must admit that Washington is no novice where biological warfare is concerened.,The US was accused of using germ weapons against Korea during the Korean War (1950-1953) and China based on the testimony of at least 38 US military pilots.,In August 2021, Xinhua quoted witnesses and historians describing how the Pentagon used germ bombs in civilian areas in China and Korea to spread dozens of species of poisonous insects and germs.,And Havana leveled accusations against the Pentagon over the dengue epidemic in Cuba that contaminated 345,000 people in 1981 and an artificial outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) that led to the slaughter of 500,000 animals and inflicted considerable economic damage on the island nation in 1971. The US Department of Defense denied the allegations.,"Over the years highly regarded and fully mainstream American journalists and academics have published books and articles documenting America's extensive use of biowarfare during the Korean War and later as anti-food supply attacks against Cuba, East Germany, and other countries," notes Unz.,Recently, Russia's Ministry of Defense has revisited cases pertaining to the US history of biological warfare, while examining a trove of highly sensitive documents shedding light on the Pentagon's experiments with highly contagious pathogens in Ukraine. According to the MoD, the Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) division ran a network of biological labs in Ukraine with the aim of inflicting damage on Russia's people and economy.,"I'm certainly aware of the Russian Ministry of Defense public claims regarding the Pentagon's involvement in Ukrainian biolabs, and the preparation of possible biowarfare attacks against Russia," says Unz. "I don't have any special knowledge of this issue, but the apparent public admission by [Undersecretary of State] Victoria Nuland at a US Senate hearing convinced me that there was a high likelihood that these Russian accusations were correct.",Unz argues that "American military plans for biowarfare attacks against Russia dramatically increase the likelihood that similar measures had been prepared against China and Iran, and perhaps actually carried out by rogue elements of the Trump Administration." Although US secretive biological programs and the Pentagon's overseas biowarfare labs have been triggering further suspicions, the topic still remains largely neglected and suppressed by western mainstream media.。　　短期价格在悲观情绪释放后仍存一定支撑。　　最近的乙二醇堪称市场的明星品种，8月6日以来涨势如虹，得益于其基本面强劲支撑。　　支撑因素分析　　最关键的影响因素仍是海峡持续封锁，导致中东特别是沙特的货物难以运出，我国乙二醇进口自3月份以来持续下滑，预计9月份进口仍难有大的恢复，10月份进口需要看随后地缘缓解后是否有货物运出。　　乙二醇供应缺失大于需求增量，尽管聚酯前期开工率低于去年，但长丝开工仍有韧性。　　库存持续去化至近几年同期低位水平，偏低的库存进一步提高了价格弹性。　　临近交割月时，供应特别是进口短期内大幅恢复概率较小，较低的库存以及终端的开工韧性导致短期乙二醇矛盾难解，吸引资金大幅入场。　　后市展望　　后期来看，近月乙二醇的矛盾只能通过挤压需求来实现硬平衡，同时配合国内供应略有边际恢复。经测算，聚酯开工需要降到77-78%左右才能实现乙二醇短期的相对平衡。进入9月份，终端瓶片和短纤已经有装置预期停车，同时受利润和原料的制约。

二 | 　　未来海峡仍是基本面关注的重点，隔夜海峡局势出现一定的缓解。如果乙二醇进口恢复顺利，做多的关键因素将消失，甚至逐步进入过剩格局，但是如果未来海峡问题仍存在一定的反复，预计短期价格在悲观情绪释放后仍存在一定的支撑。　　乙二醇库存　　编辑：武宇杰　　审核：赵洪虎/F0303315、Z0012132/　　复核：于心悦　　报告完成日期：2026年8月26日　　交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2012〕38号责任编辑：李铁民。

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