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Why Finland & Sweden's NATO Future is Uncertain, Fraught With Economic & Security Risks_我的网站

A |     8月21日上午，石家庄市裕华区仓盛路旁的银灰色建筑前排起蜿蜒数百米的长龙，标志性的蓝色菱形LOGO在阳光下格外醒目。

B | 作为山姆布局全国的第68家门店，山姆会员商店首店开门迎客。    "The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO constitutes a test of loyalty to the western bloc, in particular to the US and Great Britain, which are the real geopolitical and geostrategic beneficiaries of the ongoing conflict," said Dr. Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends International Institute for Global Analyses.,The two Nordic countries' neutrality differs. Sweden had not joined a military alliance or participated in any war since 1814, with its neutrality being flexible, self-declared and not enshrined in law, as the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars noted in its 2 February 2022 study.,In contrast, Finland's neutrality was stipulated by the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 which was signed after the end of the Second World War between the Allied powers - including the USSR, the UK, the US and France - and former Nazi Germany allies, such as Italy, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Finland.,"This definitely appears to be a violation of Finland’s international agreements signed after WWII with the Soviet Union then later Russia," said Earl Rasmussen, executive vice-president of Eurasia Group, citing the 1947 treaty as well as the 1992 Russo-Finnish treaty.,It raises questions as to whether benefits from the abandoned neutrality will outweigh potential security risks for the two Nordic states.,"I am puzzled by how this inclusion will provide increased security, it appears it will likely further deteriorate relations between Russia and the EU and more specifically with Finland and Sweden," Rasmussen said. "Strategically, I am not sure what the real impact will be. Essentially, both Finland and Sweden are de facto NATO members to include coordination and joint exercises. However, tensions will likely increase and increased defensive measures will likely occur in Russia’s northern regions as well as Kaliningrad.",Why Finland & Sweden’s NATO Admission Is So Important to the US16 May, 19:17 GMT,What Do Finns and Swedes Think About NATO Membership?,Meanwhile, popular support for NATO membership in both Nordic states has never been high.,According to a 2021 poll commissioned by EVA Finnish Business and Policy Forum, around 26% of Finns were in favor of joining NATO, 40% against and 33% remained undecided. A January 2022 Demoskop survey showed 42% of Swedes supporting NATO accession and 37% of respondents opposed it.,The Russian special operation in Ukraine is said to have invigorated NATO proponents in both Nordic countries. Rasmussen noted that recent surveys in Finland have shown a spike in support up to 76%. However, in Sweden, support to join NATO has remained relatively low, climbing to just 47%, according to him.,Meanwhile, unlike Sweden, Finland shares a 1,340 km (830 mi) border with Russia and has maintained longstanding economic relations with Moscow for decades. As of 2019, Finland imported around 60% of its energy from Russia with the latter being the fourth largest importer of Finnish goods in 2017, according to the Wilson Center. Furthermore, Russian speakers constitute the third largest ethnic group in the Nordic country.,Putin: If NATO Infrastructure is Deployed to Finland & Sweden, Russia Will Respond in ‘Mirror Way’01:02 GMT,"Even during the Cold War, both states were neutral and non-NATO members, with Finland developing strong economic and trade relations with Russia," the Eurasia Group vice-president explained. "As trade degrades and energy sharing diminishes there will likely be a strain placed on the economies, mostly with Finland.",Moscow has repeatedly underscored that Russia harbors no hostile intentions against either Nordic country, yet also signaling that the latest NATO expansion will not make the continent more stable or secure. Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the Kremlin has "nothing that could worry us in terms of Finland or Sweden's membership in NATO," adding, however, that if military equipment or troops are deployed along the border, Moscow will have to "respond in a mirror manner and create the same threats in the territories from which they threaten us.",There is yet another controversy surrounding Sweden and Finland's accession to the western military bloc: neither Nordic state has held a popular referendum to find out whether the public has really weighed all the pros and cons of NATO membership.,"Political leadership in both countries is taking a certain degree of risk to push forward the joining without a public referendum," Rasmussen said. "I am sure Washington and Brussels realize that risk.",In addition to that, NATO accession may increase political polarization in both Nordic states, according to the Eurasia Group vice-president. In particular, "the Finnish government is made up of several political parties with no single party having a clear majority, hence requiring partnerships being established," he noted, adding that worsening economic conditions could "potentially create divisions politically and thus alignments could easily change.",Meanwhile, the Swedish left has lashed out at the government and the Social Democrats over Stockholm's NATO admission deal with Ankara. According to Expressen, the Greens and the Left Party are mooting a no-confidence vote against Foreign Minister Ann Linde.,Bank of England Head: UK To Face More Inflation Than Other Major Economies10:47 GMT,Why NATO's 2% Requirement Appears Unrealistic Today,NATO rules may trigger further controversy as they will require Sweden and Finland to spend 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on their defense budgets. Even though the Nordic countries have committed to reaching the benchmark by 2024, the long-term viability of their promises is in question, given skyrocketing inflation in Europe.,Inflation in Finland has recently risen to its highest level in over 30 years, hitting 7.1% in May. In April, the country's consumer price index (CPI), a popular gauge for inflation, stood at 5.7%, according to Statistics Finland.,Likewise, annual inflation in Sweden jumped from 6.4% in April to 7.3% in May, according to the country's Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate (CPIF).,"To this end, just as the Ukrainian people are sacrificed, so the economies of European countries will be sacrificed, including Finland and Sweden," forecast Graziani. "Very difficult economic and social months await us in Europe. It will be a very hot autumn. Political crises in various countries of the European Union are likely to be hypothesized.",EU member states, the UK and the US are taking efforts to tame galloping inflation which throws their capability of adhering to NATO requirements into question. To complicate matters further, the UK is calling to step up funding and arming of Ukraine "until victory" amid the Russian special operation.,"The US and UK are using the conflict in Ukraine to pressure greater EU involvement and support to include NATO contributions," said Rasmussen. "While it is being projected that member states will meet their 2% objectives by 2024, based on developing economic conditions and a pending recession, I question the realism of that projection. Increasing real contributions for defense along with rising tensions between the EU and Russia may prove challenging as economic conditions worsen resulting in political disruptions across Europe.",Meanwhile, the US is not in its best shape either, according to Rasmussen. The country steadily moves forward into a potentially deep recession; increased tensions with China; emerging challenges in Latin America; tensions with Iran; and economic challenges at home. The scholar believes that it is likely one will see a major political change in the US in 2022 midterms, in 2024 and beyond.,What’s more, as the Republican Party becomes increasingly influenced by MAGA supporters, Trump's skepticism towards the NATO alliance may get a second wind in 2024. And this raises further questions about the future of the Cold War-era military bloc.。山姆的到来，是石家庄零售业版图变化的最新注脚。这两年，盒马鲜生、京东七鲜、小象超市等品牌相继“抢滩”，群雄逐鹿，各有章法。

C | 外来品牌扎堆进驻、本土商超加速转型，石家庄乃至零售业正在经历一场以品质消费为导向的深刻重塑。

8月21日，市民在石家庄山姆会员商店购物。日报记者 史晟全摄凭独特的销售模式“入场”走进山姆，扑面而来的不是传统商超的琳琅满目，而是9米高的仓储式货架和3米宽的主通道构成的通透空间。一楼入口处，1．8米高的熊猫玩偶吸引顾客驻足打卡。支持语音交互的仿生四足智能机器人在卖场内互动，不少家长带着孩子停下脚步进行体验。但真正定义“高端”的，是货架上的产品。各类自有品牌商品摆在C位，海捕大虾、整条大鲅鱼、土著黄公鸡等适配本地口味的商品悉数亮相，西班牙冰鲜伊比利亚黑猪肉、加拿大3A级谷饲牛肉等高端肉类占据一席……每一件都经过精挑细选，让“闭眼入”成为可能。“年年续费，这次山姆开在了家门口，终于不用跑外地了。”石家庄市民郝苏红是山姆的资深会员，开业当天，她带着7岁的儿子李慕珵赶来复购菠萝包。小家伙原本在山西旅游不肯回，一听山姆开业便催着返程。郝苏红说：“这里的牛排、羊排品质让人放心，正考虑把普通卡升成卓越卡，计划每周来囤一次。”“交260元年费才能进的超市”——这是很多消费者对山姆的第一印象。这道“入场门槛”背后，藏着山姆区别于传统商超的核心逻辑：它的目标客群，是愿意为高品质商品付费的中高收入家庭。如何俘获这些消费者的心？首店仅设置约4000个SKU（最小库存单位），约等于一家传统大卖场的五分之一，在有限的SKU范围内，每一款单品都经过全球采购团队层层筛选，承担着“被反复复购”的任务。这种少而精的选品逻辑，省去了消费者在海量商品中做决策的时间成本，逐步建立起“闭眼入”的信任。

D | 超市不再只是追求客流的“收租”模式，而是转向经营用户的“买手”模式。

E | 这种用专业选品换用户信任的模式，还体现在质价比的平衡上。从石家庄市桥西区专程赶来的马国娟和女儿逛了两个多小时，除了小青柠饮料、榴莲大福、蒜味虾片等网红爆款，还特意选购了整块猪肋排和家庭装洗发水。在她看来，山姆并非只靠“高端”标签吸引客流，而是在品质基础上兼顾了性价比，这也是其能支撑家庭大宗囤货的核心优势。“之前已经用‘极速达’下过单，今天还是没忍住来凑首店开业的热闹。”顾客赵艳的一句话说出了很多消费者的心声。如今，线上下单补日常、线下到店做囤货，已经成为新的消费习惯。依托“大店＋云仓”的全渠道布局，山姆不仅突破了门店边界，还将购物本身打造成家庭休闲场景。开业前两个月，“极速达”已在石家庄提前上线，并两次扩容，覆盖中心城区核心片区，周边3至5公里居民线上下单，最快1小时送达。这种“线下体验＋线上履约”的模式，既保留仓储店的囤货特质，又适配即时消费的日常需求。城市与品牌双向奔赴山姆将首店落子石家庄，不是偶然的商业选择，而是城市消费潜力与品牌扩张战略的精准契合，是一场双向奔赴。在省商业联合会会长张彦峰看来，山姆选择石家庄，是对这座城市消费能力、人口规模和营商环境的认可。

F | 一座省会城市的购买力和消费升级需求，是山姆落地的一大原因。近年来，作为常住人口超1100万的省会城市，石家庄居民收入稳步增长，消费结构不断优化，今年1至7月，全市限额以上单位消费品零售额达713．7亿元。然而，高端仓储会员零售长期处于缺位状态，本地家庭批量采购优质商品，往往要驱车前往京津。需求已然显现，供给尚存缺口，这是山姆看到的市场机遇。不少业内人士表示，山姆落地将填补石家庄高端会员制零售市场的空白。石家庄的优势，不止于自身。

G | 近年来，石家庄正加快打造区域消费中心城市，先后获评全国现代商贸流通体系试点城市等多个国家级试点，对周边区域的辐射能力持续增强，这进一步放大了山姆的商业想象空间。这一点，在开业当天的停车场得到验证。记者看到，拥有1150个车位的停车场内，保定、邢台、邯郸乃至山西、河南的外地车辆比比皆是。山姆开业前会员卡办理突破3万张，其中约20％来自外地。“以前都要去北京天津，现在在石家庄就能逛山姆。”来自定州的李颖，道出了众多跨城消费者的心声。“山姆”二字的更深层意义，在于一个链接全国乃至全球的供应链体系。

H | 拥有丰富的农业和食品资源，君乐宝牛奶、迁西板栗、张家口燕麦等优势产品，正需要这样的渠道走向更广阔的市场。

I | “我们将持续挖掘本地优质资源，通过供应链共创和品质管理，把好产品变成稳定、可持续的商品，推向全国。

J | ”山姆鲜食采购负责人曲琰表示。以供应链协同创造双向价值，已有先例。

K | 近年来，盒马、七鲜、小象等品质型零售首店接连进驻石家庄，既印证了首店经济的蓬勃态势，补齐了本地零售业态的短板，又完成了供应链层面的双向赋能，把全球好货带进来，也让好物走出去。倒逼本土零售业求新求变热闹开业的背后，更值得关注的，是山姆将给石家庄乃至零售业带来怎样的“新变量”。

L | 从终端需求看，消费升级与消费分层的趋势愈发明显。

M | 马国娟的购物习惯颇具代表性：家庭大宗囤货选山姆，日常蔬菜面点去家门口的信誉楼、北国超市，下班应急备菜则用盒马、七鲜等即时零售平台。“有一次在七鲜App上下单，不到15分钟外卖员就敲了门。”这样的速度让马国娟颇为惊喜。零售业态的丰富，给消费者带来实实在在的选择权。从“只能去哪买”变成“看需求决定去哪买”，消费观念也由此从追逐价格转向匹配需求。这背后，也体现出市民消费理念从“性价比”向“质价比”的跃迁。消费者不再只盯着单价高低，而是综合考量品质、效率与时间成本。

N | 付费会员制的普及，也让“为选品信任和服务价值付费”逐渐被接受。

o | 从行业视角看，山姆落地带来的影响，不是多了一个竞争对手，而是树立了一个关于“商品力”和“会员信任”的参照系，从而推动整个行业从价格内卷走向价值比拼。去年8月，盒马鲜生进入石家庄，它不单靠商品品质，还联动多种会员体验以及每天消费可领的免费菜，激活复购。小象超市在石家庄没有声势浩大的开业宣传，而是悄悄出现在消费者的手机点单列表里。

p | 29元就包邮，价格打了下来，品质也没有掉队。新品牌轮番登场，本土商超坐不住了。

q | 永辉超市长安万达广场店去年完成了“胖东来式调改”；裕华区的信誉楼超市进行全方位装修提档，从服装分区到餐饮业态一一补齐；北国超市Ulife北国店经过三个月的装修升级，以全新面貌面向消费者。在张彦峰看来，山姆短期内并不会颠覆本地商业基本盘，消费者不会彻底抛弃长期习惯的本土商超，只是多了一种周期性囤货的选择。但真正的冲击在于，一旦传统商超比品质拼不过山姆、比便捷赢不了社区店，“卡在中间”那批客群就会被抽走，这种“中间地带”将成为本土企业最危险的竞争区间。从城市格局看，山姆的选址更是一步“补白”的妙棋。长期以来，石家庄零售商业集中于中山路一条主轴，北国商城与勒泰中心、万象城和新百广场两大商圈承载了大部分中高端客流。山姆落子裕华区东南片区，不仅填补了区域大型商业综合体的空白，还有望将这片区域从城改缝合带变身商业新地标，进一步提升东南片区的城市吸引力。“山姆的到来，只是石家庄零售变革的一个新起点。”张彦峰说，未来的市场竞争终究要回归商品力和服务力本身，谁能读懂本地消费者的真实需求，持续输出匹配预期的产品与服务，谁就能赢得市场。

r | 当满载而归的人们陆续走出卖场，当外地车牌的车辆有序驶离停车场，山姆带来的零售变革才刚刚开篇。（日报见习记者 尹春月 侯 淼）。

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